Valentine’s Sell-Through: Avoid the Retail Margin Cliff
- Jon Allen
- 15 minutes ago
- 3 min read
Valentine’s is one of those holidays that looks small on the calendar… until you feel it in the PO volume.
For 2026, the National Retail Federation (NRF) expects Valentine’s spending to hit a record $29.1 billion, with shoppers budgeting $199.78 on average.
That’s a lot of roses, candy, snacks, beauty, and “little treats.” And if you supply any of those categories—or anything that rides along with them—you already know the hard part isn’t the spike.
It’s what happens right after.
The mid-February reality: demand snaps back fast
Valentine’s is a classic “compressed” event. Customers don’t keep buying heart-shaped boxes into March. Retailers want the floor reset. Distributors want cleaner turns. And suppliers want the cash.
So here’s the trap: you can win the holiday and still lose the month.
Why? Because the post-holiday phase often includes:
markdowns and clearance pressure
returns and damages (especially in seasonal displays)
“extra” deductions tied to handling, compliance, or late visibility on what actually sold
internal finger-pointing (forecasting vs. supply chain vs. sales vs. finance)
A fictional example (clearly fictional)
A confection supplier ships aggressively into the first week of February. Great placements. Endcaps. Displays. The works.
Then the weather hits a couple of markets. Traffic dips. Sell-through slows in exactly the stores that received the most inventory.
By February 17, the retailer resets the seasonal assortment. The display gets dismantled. The remaining product gets marked down and scattered.
The supplier didn’t “do anything wrong.” But the plan didn’t include a clean exit—so the margin cliff showed up anyway.
The “sell-through math” suppliers should watch (not just shipments)
In mid-February, don’t ask “How much did we ship?”
Ask:
What’s the sell-through rate by store cluster?
How much inventory is trapped in the wrong places?
What’s the markdown exposure in the next 14 days?
If you can’t answer those quickly, you’re flying blind—right when the retailer is making reset decisions.
The supplier playbook: win the spike and survive the hangover
Here’s a practical approach that works for suppliers of any size, from $10M to $ 1 B.
1) Treat Valentine’s as a campaign with an exit strategy
Before the event starts, decide what “good” looks like:
target sell-through % by the Monday after Valentine’s
a pull-forward plan for slower stores (if you have the levers)
an agreed markdown plan (timing + thresholds)
Retailers love suppliers who show up with a cleanup plan. It reduces their risk.
2) Build a two-wave forecast: “spike” and “snapback”
A single forecast curve doesn’t fit seasonal events.
You need:
a peak week forecast (obvious)
a snapback forecast (where the real pain happens)
Over-forecast the snapback, and you’ll end up funding markdowns. Under-forecast it, and you’ll miss the post-holiday “treat yourself” tail in select markets.
3) Use pack architecture to control leftover risk
This is a simple but powerful lever:
smaller packs for late-season flexibility
variety packs only where velocity supports it
avoid “bulky” seasonal packaging that’s hard to re-merchandise
Packaging can be a sales accelerator… and a liquidation nightmare.
4) Make retail execution easier (because mid-Feb teams are tired)
By mid-February, store teams are resetting, recovering, and juggling multiple seasonal transitions.
Your win is to be easy:
clear cases and labeling
consistent item setup
fewer “special” requirements
retail-ready packaging that doesn’t create handling friction
5) Close the loop fast: a 10-day post-event review
By the second week after Valentine’s:
identify where markdowns happened and why
list the top 3 root causes (timing, placement, pack, forecasting, store execution)
lock two changes for next year (not 20—two)
You don’t need perfection. You need fewer repeats.
Where Woodridge Retail Group fits
We see many seasonal programs that appear to be winners on the shipping report but losses on the net margin report. The difference is almost always post-event discipline: sell-through visibility, a cleanup plan, and fewer execution variables.
