Retail Strategies & Supplier Insights

There was a time when private label mostly meant “cheaper alternative.” Not anymore. Private label sales in the U.S. reached a record $282.8 billion in 2025, and store brands grew 3.3%, nearly triple the growth rate of national brands at 1.2%. They also hit all-time highs of 21.3% dollar share and 23.5% unit share. In food and beverage specifically, private label now holds about 23% market share. That is not a side story. That is the story. 

March is when everybody starts talking brackets. In supplier finance, though, the real tournament is happening in accounts receivable. It is not flashy. It is not on TV. But it can absolutely wreck your season.

Most suppliers don’t lose margin in one dramatic moment. They lose it the boring way. A few late trucks. A label that doesn’t scan. An Advance Ship Notice (ASN) that doesn’t match. A routing guide rule that someone didn’t know changed. Then the remittance comes in… short.

If private label still feels like “the cheap alternative,” you’re reading last decade’s script. Today, store brands are a core strategy. Retailers are building them like real brands—tiered, designed, marketed, and measured like a profit engine. And the numbers are blunt.

Tariff headlines come in like a thunderstorm. But if you’re a retail supplier, the real damage usually shows up later—quietly—inside your landed cost, your trade budget, and that one line on your remittance advice that simply says “deduction.”

On Feb. 9, 2026, Kroger appointed Greg Foran as CEO—effective immediately—ending an unusually long stretch of interim leadership after Rodney McMullen’s exit in 2025. And this isn’t business as usual for Kroger. Foran is widely described as Kroger’s first external CEO hire. That matters because it signals the board doesn’t just want stability. It wants a reset.

On February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court drew a bright legal line: IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs. And then—almost immediately—the market got the part everyone in retail cares about: the costs didn’t “reset.” They just moved to a different lever.

Mid-February is when a lot of suppliers ask the same question: “Why isn’t this promo converting like it used to?” You’re not imagining it.

Mid-February is when “value pressure” stops being a headline and becomes a buyer conversation. And the signals are getting louder. PepsiCo has said it plans to cut snack prices by up to 15% to boost sales—reported in recent coverage tied to slowing snack volumes and consumer price sensitivity.

Late January is when many supplier teams have the same quiet moment. You look at Q4 shipments and sales. You feel good about demand. Then you look at the bank balance… and it doesn’t match the story. That gap isn’t bad selling. It’s netting. It’s the reality that in retail, revenue can be real and still not be cash—at least not yet.

Discover how to build a Retail Compliance Operating System to control compliance issues. Learn Retail Compliance strategies for 2026 success.

In the first quarter (Q1), promotions are enforced by systems, not people. Here’s how suppliers stop short pays, billback chaos, and trade spend leakage before it repeats all year. Trade spend is one of the biggest checks you write all year. And in Q1 (first quarter), it has a bad habit of turning into a second job—because the retailer’s system starts “auditing” your promotions for you. Not with a person. With rules.

Returns aren’t just a retailer's problem anymore. They’re a supplier profit problem. And January is when you feel it.

Trade spend is supposed to buy growth. In Q1, it often buys you something else: confusion, short pays, and weeks of “Can you resend the backup?” If you’ve ever looked at a deduction and thought, “We already funded that promotion… why are we paying again?”—welcome to the club. Why this matters more than ever in 2026 Retail is entering 2026 with shoppers still seeking value. Retailers are leaning into deals, private label, and “dupes,” and they’re getting more aggressive about

Discover how the blocked Kroger merger impacts the grocery landscape, with Walmart emerging as a key player. Explore the Kroger merger dynamics.

If 2026 had a supply chain slogan, it would be: “Nice single-source you’ve got there. Hope nothing happens.” Most suppliers don’t dual-source because it’s fun. They do it because retail punishments for inconsistency are real: out-of-stocks, missed promotions, and sometimes lost shelf space.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) expects 2025 holiday retail sales in November and December to cross the $1 trillion mark for the first time, up about 3.7%–4.2% over last year. And 2024 already set a record, with core holiday sales hitting roughly $994.1 billion, up 4% year over year.  That’s great for headlines. But here’s the question that matters for you as a supplier: Did holiday retail sales actually lift your margin?

Year-end close can feel like a necessary evil. Accruals. Reclasses. Deductions. Spreadsheets everywhere. But here’s the opportunity: the same work you are doing to close the books can help you open the story you tell buyers in 2026.

If you sell into big retail, your year isn’t 12 months long. It’s 12 months… plus the six-week sprint from early November through New Year’s.

If retail felt slow this year, you’re not imagining things. Big banners plan category resets months ahead; most categories are refreshed at least annually.